FanBoardHQ

Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky University · 2024 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#80
Efficiency
-6.7
90th FBS
Record
8-6
Conf. record
6-3
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 10
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Western Kentucky went 8-6 and was ranked 80th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 82nd-ranked defense carried them, with a 97th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 61st-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 130th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-2
Q4
8-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

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3
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5
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Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
74th
-3.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
106th
full season
106th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
131st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~8.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ AlabamaSEC#15L 063-29.00%-24.2Q1
2vs Eastern KentuckyUACW 310+16.6100%4.5Q4
3@ Middle TennesseeConference USA#130W 4921+19.7100%17.3Q4
4vs ToledoMid-American#71W 2621-1.1100%-1.2Q4
5@ Boston CollegeACC#50L 2021-16.30%7.6Q2
7vs UTEPConference USA#126W 4417+18.3100%2.7Q4
8@ Sam HoustonConference USA#56W 3114-2.0100%13.5Q4
10vs Kennesaw StateConference USA#132W 3114+20.0100%-9.4Q4
11@ New Mexico StateConference USA#127W 4128+14.6100%-7.4Q4
12vs Louisiana TechConference USA#111L 712+9.90%-21.4Q4
13@ LibertyConference USA#85L 2138+1.60%-25.2Q4
14vs Jacksonville StateConference USA#69W 1917-0.6100%-4.3Q4
15@ Jacksonville StateConference USA#69L 1252-6.10%-38.3Q3
Postseason
vs James MadisonSun Belt#54L 1727-8.50%-8.7Q3

14 played · 8-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Kentucky, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-33.8-10.5+12.9-24417-18313-9-7-21-25-4-38Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 61st
SR 65thYPP 64thEPA 61st
RushingEff 130th
SR 120thYPP 128thEPA 134th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 87th
SR 71stYPP 107thEPA 86th
Rush defenseEff 130th
SR 124thYPP 131stEPA 128th
Dropback rate 56%Tempo -3.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 89th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 39%2nd · Defense allowed: 46%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 47%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 48%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 97.0Q1 · Allowed: 69.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 101.0Q2 · Allowed: 104.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 65.0Q3 · Allowed: 79.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 85.0Q4 · Allowed: 86.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern KentuckyOffenseDefense
Western Kentucky Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 97th
-4.3
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: -2.8
Field position -1.4Finishing drives -2.8= -4.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 112th · Finishing 88th

Defensive EffRanked 82nd
-1.9
Field position: +0.2Finishing drives: -2.1
Field position +0.2Finishing drives -2.1= -1.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 56th · Finishing 82nd

2.11 points per drive on offense, 2.10 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(248)57% / 43%44%6.3
Q2(254)56% / 44%42%5.8
Q3(201)55% / 45%44%6.3
Q4(184)50% / 50%39%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(180)10.146%7.7
2nd(162)8.243%6.7
3rd(126)8.443%8.0
4th(18)4.861%9.6
All (486)45%7.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(204)10.041%4.7
2nd(126)8.233%4.3
3rd(58)4.647%3.7
4th(13)1.762%2.2
All (401)40%4.3

Western Kentucky, all games.